Origin Capital CRE Sentiment Tracker: Lack of funding and Brexit seen as key risks for sector

A recent survey from Origin Capital, completed by 240 Commercial Real Estate (CRE) industry professionals, has revealed that the biggest perceived risks to the sector over the next 3 months are a lack of CRE funding and the upcoming Brexit referendum. 44% of respondents selected lack of funding as a key risk, with 43% believing the upcoming Brexit referendum is a threat to the sector. In addition, 25% of respondents identified loan purchasers exiting the market as another key risk over the next quarter, while 11% cited government intervention.

Specifically regarding Brexit, 57% of respondents believe that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the Irish CRE market. However, 28% believe a Brexit would actually have a positive impact on the market, while 15% predicted no impact.

The survey also provided an insight into what respondents felt was likely to happen in the market over the next 3 months:

  • 45% believe there will be an increase in the number of CRE transactions in the Irish market (28% predict no change in activity, while 27% forecast a decline)
  • 45% believe the price of CRE assets will increase (45% predict no change, 10% forecast a decline)
  • Two thirds (67%) think CRE rents will increase (31% think rents will remain at similar levels, while only 2% of respondents predict a decline)
  • Half (49%) believe the attitude of existing funders to borrowers seeking CRE funding will improve (40% think attitudes will remain the same, 11% predict a decline)
  • Over 61% believe it is likely that new CRE funders will enter the market (16% expressed a neutral opinion, while 23% view new entrants as unlikely)
  • Two thirds (67%) believe that the formation of the new government will have no impact on the sector (roughly similar amounts believe it will have a positive (15%) and negative (18%) impact)

Respondents believe there are a number of opportunities for the sector over the next quarter, with common factors identified including secondary loan sales, opportunities outside the core Dublin market, general economic improvements and new development projects.

Commenting on the results, Ross Metcalfe, CEO of Origin Capital stated ‘The results from the first Origin Capital CRE sentiment tracker are very interesting, and show that uncertainty surrounding Brexit is very much an issue for the industry. That aside, it’s clear that many respondents believe we will see an increase in transactions, pricing and rents over the next quarter. The fact that a lack of funding is cited as a key concern is unsurprising in an environment where many traditional institutions still aren’t lending extensively. Indeed, Origin Capital was formed last year to provide an alternative to traditional funding options, and we have already established ourselves as a credible CRE funding provider in a constrained market’.


About Origin Capital:

Origin Capital provides senior debt commercial property finance in the Irish market for investment deals in excess of €3m. The company is a joint venture between LeBruin and certain investment funds managed by Tricadia Capital Management, LLC, a New York-based investment firm with approximately $4bn in assets under management. Established in April 2015, the company has lent over €65m to clients, and was recently awarded the ‘Best Newcomer’ award in the InBusiness Editor’s Choice Awards 2015.


Martin Robinson
Head of Marketing,
Origin Capital
Tel: + 353 1 281 5250