The latest Commercial Real Estate Sentiment tracker from Origin Capital has been completed by 240 industry professionals. Common risks identified for the sector over the next three months include the fallout from the Brexit result, the US election result, market/ political uncertainty and a lack of funding. In terms of opportunities, interestingly Brexit is the most commonly cited factor, with other opportunities including general economic growth, and the potential for both commercial and residential development.
More specifically, over the next three months, respondents had the following expectations for the market:
Interestingly, the results above do not vary significantly from those recorded before Brexit (in May 2016), suggesting that although many respondents perceive Brexit to be a significant risk to the sector over the next three months, it is not yet impacting their expectations for the metrics outlined above.
Other key findings from the survey include:
Commenting on the results, Ross Metcalfe, CEO of Origin Capital stated ‘The results from the latest Origin Capital CRE sentiment tracker show that Brexit is very much on the minds of respondents within the industry, however it is interesting that it is seen as both a significant risk and a significant opportunity for the sector. The results also show that respondents believe a number of other factors will have an impact on the industry, including the US election result, and more local factors including a lack of funding, the proposed tax on overseas property funds, the first-time buyers scheme, and changes to the Central Bank mortgage regulations’.
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Origin Capital provides senior debt commercial property finance in the Irish market for investment deals in excess of €3m, and has credit approved over €180m of transactions in the Irish market. Origin Capital recently announced a funding agreement with Morgan Stanley which will allow the company to provide funding for CRE projects across a wide variety of asset classes, and also to compete for significantly larger transactions. For more information please visit www.origincapital.ie.
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